Demographic Crisis: Studies Show Dramatic Impact on GDP
Greece is facing a deep demographic crisis, with the magnitude of the problem so serious that it risks causing enormous damage to the economy’s growth prospects
Arecent study by the Athens-based Foundation for Economic & Industrial Research (IOBE) and Eurostat show that Greece’s population is expected to shrink from around 10.4 million today to 9.5 million by 2050, and significantly below nine million by 2100 – unless the number of births pick up.
As expected, the decrease will be accompanied by an increasingly aging population, resulting in a ratio of seniors to the active population exceeding 0.60 after 2050, up from 0.35 in 2020.
The immediate impact on the labour force will be dramatic, the study notes, as a shrinking labour force means a decline in GDP.
IOBE estimates that if current demographic trends continue, Greece’s GDP will fall by 31% up to 2100, resulting in a loss of 58 billion euros, as calculated in current rates. Similarly, almost 2.1 million jobs are expected to be lost, while SMEs are projected to suffer due to a shortage of workers, but also due to a reduction in domestic demand as a result of a shrinking population.
Double impact
Moreover, a Bank of Greece study shows that a 10% increase in the share of the population over 60 is associated with a reduction in GDP per capita of around 5.5 percentage points.
Τα συστατικά του χυμού παντζαριού υποστηρίζουν την καρδιά και την κυκλοφορία του αίματος, ενώ παράλληλα συμβάλλουν στη φυσική ρύθμιση της αρτηριακής πίεσης.
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