New upgrades for Greek growth
Analysts’ expectations and fears
Foreign agencies and international banks have made a barrage of upward revisions for the growth rate of the Greek economy in order to better capture the stronger-than-expected start of the Greek economy this year, with the recovery rising in the second half, as a result of domestic demand, the start of the Recovery Fund projects, as well as the increase of tourist receipts, while increased savings will also contribute to the stimulation of private consumption expenditure by strengthening the GDP.
For example, HSBC revised GDP growth rate for 2021 to 4.5% (compared to the previous estimate of just 2.2%), expecting growth of 5.5% (from 6%) for 2022, while expecting that the return of the Greek economy to pre-pandemic levels will occur in the second quarter of 2022, when GDP will return to the levels of the fourth quarter of 2019.
UniCredit also, as a result of the stronger than expected start of the Greek economy this year, now forecasts an increase in Greece’s GDP to 5.5% (compared to the previous forecast of 2.5%) for 2021, but the growth of 2022 is estimated at 3% (from 5% previously).
UBS now expects growth of 5.6% this year and 6% in 2022, as a result of the opening of the economy in April, the start of the tourist season, the launch of the business climate and the expected disbursement of 7.5 billion euros from the Recovery Fund in the second half of 2021.
Cloudy landscape for tourism
On the other hand, of course, the tourism revenue landscape for this year remains murky, with Capital Economics even lowering the bar of expectations, as it believes that the Covid digital certificate, which is released today, does not eliminate the uncertainty about travel in the EU, while it will have very little impact on European tourism, at a time when the Delta mutation, but also some estimates of expected tourism revenue continue to be problematic.
For its part, Oxford Economics estimated that tourism in Greece and the European South is recovering, although it warns of the dangers posed by coronavirus mutations and the fact that travel for tourists from the United Kingdom has not opened.
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