Military high risk Orange Alert extended at least until end of April

Amidst reports that Turkey plans to stiffen its aggressive posture towards Greece, the Defence Ministry has decided to extend until the end of April its orange alert in the Aegean, which Ankara has tied up for exercises over several weeks.

The expectation of a more aggressive posture by Ankara is linked to the fact that the eight Turkish army officers that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says are implicated in the abortive July, 2016 ,coup against him will be released within the month of April, as Greek law mandates such a release after 18 months of incarceration.

A potential Turkish-Greek clash in the Aegean around Easter time would also deal a blow to Greek tourism, as the tourist season begins to come into full swing around this time.

If such a confrontation were to be staged by Ankara, which is by no means pre-ordained, it would aim to bring Athens to the bargaining table for bilateral talks, in which Turkey would press its demands over sovereignty of dozens of Aegean islets, and over co-exploitation of potential hydrocarbons deposits in Greece’s Exclusive Economic Zone in the Aegean and south of Crete.

That scenario has been a key objective of Ankara for decades, at least since the 1996 Imia crisis, which brought the two countries to the brink of war

The eight Turkish military officers were arrested on 16 July, 2016, upon their arrival in Greece, requesting asylum one day after the failed coup attempt, in which they categorically deny any involvement.

The officers, who so far have been denied asylum (international protection) in Greece, cannot be extradited to Turkey, as a Greek Supreme Court ruling has irrevocably barred that eventuality due to grave doubts that they would receive a fair trial in Turkey.

Upon their release from custody, the officers will also be given police security, as there are heightened concerns that there could be an attack against them on Greek territory, linked to their alleged involvement in the plot to topple Erdogan.

Vasilis Kanellis

in.gr