FYROM accord a tinderbox of political developments in Athens, Skopje

The FYROM naming agreement signed at Prespes could be a catalyst for political developments, expediting changes on the political scene of both Athens and Skopje.

The two sides are linked by many elements, and not just the signatures on the accord that was signed.

In both Greece and FYROM, there are opponents and supporters of the agreement. The violent incidents between protesters and police at Pisoderi, near where the agreement was signed, and outside of the parliament in Skopje, are indicative of the situation among large swathes of both countries’ populations, who refuse to accept the agreement.
Just as there are political parties in Greece who say they will battle the agreement, the same applies to FYROM. No one can predict developments in the next few months.

Analysts say that one has entered a tunnel that leads to rapid fire political developments.

In Skopje

In FYROM, despite the smiles, PM Zoran Zaev is under pressure. This is not just because of the tight timetable for ratifying the accord, holding a referendum, and amending the Constitution. A large part of the public is still influenced by the nationalist VMRO party, and nobody can predict the outcome of the autumn referendum.
Zaev will likely move to ratify the accord in parliament on 20 June, yet there are scenarios about a possible resignation of FYROM President Ivanov, which would lead the country to elections.

If that does not happen, the referendum will trigger developments. If the yes vote prevails, then Zaev will bolster his power and will have received a popular mandate to proceed with the constitutional amendments that are the last condition on the FYROM side to put the agreement into effect. The referendum is essentially a vote of confidence in the moderate Zaev government.

Before autumn, Zaev will have an opportunity to persuade citizens that a new era is beginning, an era of economic recovery and of an improvement in living conditions, due to the millions of euros that will flow in from the EU.
If he persuades the people that the agreement will improve their daily lives, then he will have totally defeated those who oppose the agreement. If not, there will be a strong revival of nationalism that will blow the agreement with Greece out of the water.

In Greece
On the Greek political scene, the predominant issue is the economy, not the FYROM naming issue. The government knows that if it manages a clean exit from the memorandum, a good debt relief agreement, and a bolstering of income through handouts, then it can deal a blow to New Democracy whenever elections are held.

However, when pension cuts sink in, in December, the government faces an enraged backlash.

The FYROM issue is a fuse that can lead to the explosion of a political bomb. Defence Minister and Independent Greeks leader Panos Kammenos has a leading role, as much will depend on the emerging tendency to leave the party and on Kammenos’ ability to control his party.

The issue is not just the expulsion of MP Dimitris Kammenos and the loss of the capable and popular spokesperson Madalena Papadopoulou, or the flight of cadres in northern Greece. The problem is that the party no longer has any draw in society, in the patriotic right, in the Church, or on the anti-memorandum front.

Kammenos’ only choice now is to promise that he will attempt to block ratification of the FYROM agreement in parliament, which could topple the government, triggering early elections over national issues