As fragile as the cease fire agreement may be after nine days of activities in Syria one can draw certain conclusions.
The first is that the embattled Middle Eastern country and its populations are paying a huge price for the cynical power plays of major countries.
Part of this game is that the US is allowing an inexplicably large playing field for Russia in the region. One might speculate that the US President is in a peculiar captivity vis a vis Putin.
The third conclusion is that it is increasingly becoming ever more active in the region in its traditional role as regional thug. Turkey is becoming increasingly hostile and unbridled, and not even Trump’s letter to Erdogan not to play the tough guy or be “foolish” has made much difference.
Unbridled Erdogan is becoming ever more aggressive despite President Trump’s admonition to him not to act as the tough guy and not to be “foolish”, a term normally inconceivable in diplamtic parlance.
If Rusia is one of the winners in this cynical game it is not certain that Turkey is as well.
Ankara may be celebrating about the supposed benefits it reaped from the agreement, yet its bellicose posture has repercussions for Turkey itself.
Ever more regional countries are allying against Turkey and that suggests that Erdogan’s ambition of being the leader of the Muslim world is a chimera.
Ankara may rejoice in the benefits of the agreement but its bellicose behavior harms Turkey. Ever more countries against it are allying against it which makes any thoughts of Erdogan leading the Muslim world unrealistic.
That does not mean that Turkish activity can remain unchecked and that Ankara can remain unbridled.