Erdogan’s Greek strategy until the Turkish elections

In the period until Turkey’s snap elections, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expected to keep the hard line of intransigence on the return of two Greek army officers and to maintain his extreme rhetoric.

International affairs experts and pundits predict that the next two months in Greek-Turkish relations will be difficult, but without bellicose acts on the part of Ankara, as the outcome of a prospective clash cannot be predetermined.

Erdogan’s aim is a clear-cut victory in the 24 June elections that will solidify his unquestioned dominance, and in Greek-Turkish relations he is expected to tread on a tightrope, but without pushing the envelope too far.

According to Konstantinos Filis of the Institute of International Analysis, Erdogan and his associates will likely continue provocations until the elections, while avoiding a military confrontation, for several reasons.

“The result of a military clash is exceptionally uncertain for him to take the related risk. The intervention in Syria can take a negative turn at any time (especially because of Israeli involvement, targeting Iran). Greece’s deterrent power remains strong. There is a danger of further complications in relations with the West. All these parameters are taken into consideration by the Turkish leadership,” Filis said.

“As I say in my book Turkey, Islam, Erdogan, the Turkish president wants peace with Greece on his terms. In his view, any compromises must take into account power balances, not international law. He therefore wants to drag us into negotiations based on Turkey’s trumped up demands, rather than a war with an undetermined result,” Filis says.

“On the other hand, Erdogan is cultivating methodically a suffocating environment for the Greek side with threats, controlled tensions, systematic challenges to Greek sovereignty, and increasing or diminishing refugee and migrant flows, with the aim of holding Athens hostage in order to make it more compliant.”

Vasilis Kanellis